(header 5 139 "crtical loads v7" "NetWeaver Engine 16.4.4
(C)2008 Bruce J. Miller and Penn State University.
Directed by Michael C. Saunders, PhD" 2013 11 15 13 59)
(NOTE
  (name "global params")
  (created "201005271257")
  (modified "201104221937")
  (comment "The following are global model parameters that should be stored in a 1-record attribute table.

ANCWT1
ANCWT2
CLWT1
CLWT2
CLWT3

btp100p
btp50p

fe100p
fe50p
fr100p
fr50p
ie100p
ie50p
ir100p
ir50p")
  (text ""))
(NOTE
  (name "params needed for calculation")
  (created "201005271305")
  (modified "201104221937")
  (comment "The following calc data links need to have params entered:

fish rich loss 100 calc
fish rich loss 50 calc
insect rich loss 100 calc
insect rich loss 50 calc

brook trout presence loss 100 calc
brook trout presence loss 50 calc

(and two more fish spp to be determined)")
  (text ""))
(VAR 
  (name "ANC1")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "201005260934")
  (modified "201104211538")
  (comment "Predicted acid neutralizing capacity (ANC in ueq/L).")
  (explanation "This is the value of streamwater ANC that was predicted using the statistical model (Random Forests)."))
(VAR 
  (name "ANC2")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "201005260935")
  (modified "201108080805")
  (comment "Value of streamwater ANC that was measured at the nearest downstream water chemistry sampling location."))
(VAR 
  (name "ANCref")
  (alias "ANCREF2")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "201105231616")
  (modified "201108101411")
  (comment "Reference value of ANC used to compute S critical load.")
  (explanation "Typical values are 20, 50, and 100 ueq/L. This parameter can be set to generated CLs to protect to various ANC concentrations."))
(VAR 
  (name "ANCWT1")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "201005251320")
  (modified "201104261321")
  (comment "Weighting factor for contribution of predicted ANC.")
  (explanation "This weighting factor is used for determining a final ANC estimate for catchments nested within a larger watershed that is characterized with measured ANC.

This factor indicates the weight given to the value of ANC estimated from the statistical model when determining a final ANC estimate for the catchment.

The range of values is from 0 to 1. 

Values nearer to one indicate that the final weighted average ANC estimate is largely controlled by statistical estimate that was generated for this site. nearest downstream measured ANC value. This results when the catchment is much smaller than the water chemistry watershed it is contained within.

Values near zero indicate that the downsteam measured ANC value is mostly responsible for the final estimate of ANC within this catchment. This results when the catchment outlet location is very near to the downstream ANC sampling location."))
(VAR 
  (name "ANCWT2")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "201005251550")
  (modified "201104211544")
  (comment "Weighting factor for contribution of measured ANC.")
  (explanation "This weighting factor is used for determining a final ANC estimate for catchments nested within a larger watershed that is characterized with measured ANC.

This factor indicates the weight given to the nearest downstream measurement of ANC when determining a final ANC estimate for the catchment.

The range of values is from 0 to 1. 

Values near zero indicate that the downsteam measured ANC value does not contribute much to the final estimate of ANC for this catchment. This results when the catchment is much smaller than the water chemistry watershed it is contained within.

Values nearer to one indicate that the final weighted average ANC estimate is largely controlled by the nearest downstream measured ANC value. This results when the catchment outlet location is very near to the downstream ANC sampling location.

If this value equals 1, this is an indication that the watershed associated with the ANC sampling location is small enough to be completely contained within a single catchment."))
(VAR 
  (name "BCdep")
  (alias "BCDEP2")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "201105231611")
  (modified "201108101417")
  (comment "Base cations contributed by atmosherpic deposition."))
(VAR 
  (name "BCup")
  (alias "BCUP2")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "201105231615")
  (modified "201108101411")
  (comment "Base cations lost due to uptake and removal from tree harvest."))
(CVAR 
  (name "BCW calc")
  (alias "BCW_CALC")
  (def 0 )
  (created "201105231609")
  (modified "201311151236")
  (comment "Base cations contributed from soil mineral weathering.")
  (explanation "Three methods are available to estimate BCw.

1) Statistical predictions (Random Forests) using environmental data only

2) Statistical predictions (Random Forests) using measured stream water chemistry and environmental data only

3) Directly from MAGIC model calibrations") 
 (= 
  (+ 
   (if 
    (!= 
     (VAR 
       (name "BCWM")) 
     (const "Undetermined")) 
    (x 
     (VAR 
       (name "BCWWTM")) 
     (VAR 
       (name "BCWM")))) 
   (if 
    (!= 
     (VAR 
       (name "BCWC")) 
     (const "Undetermined")) 
    (x 
     (VAR 
       (name "BCWWTC")) 
     (VAR 
       (name "BCWC")))) 
   (x 
    (VAR 
      (name "BCWWTE")) 
    (VAR 
      (name "BCWE"))))))
(VAR 
  (name "BCWC")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "201005251610")
  (modified "201105231633")
  (comment "BCw from water chemistry data."))
(VAR 
  (name "BCWE")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "201005251610")
  (modified "201105240923")
  (comment "BCw based on statistical predictions (Random Forests) using environmental data."))
(VAR 
  (name "BCWM")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "201005251610")
  (modified "201105231632")
  (comment "BCw from MAGIC calibrations."))
(VAR 
  (name "BCWWTC")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "201005251503")
  (modified "201105231635")
  (comment "Weighting factor for contribution of critical load calculation based on BCw from water chemistry data."))
(VAR 
  (name "BCWWTE")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "201005251503")
  (modified "201105231635")
  (comment "Weighting factor for contribution of critical load calculation based on BCw from statistical predictions (Random Forests) using environmental data."))
(VAR 
  (name "BCWWTM")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "201005251502")
  (modified "201105231635")
  (comment "Weighting factor for contribution of critical load calculation based on BCw from the MAGIC model."))
(CVAR 
  (name "brook trout likelihood step2 calc")
  (alias "BROOK_TROU")
  (def 0 )
  (created "201005261310")
  (modified "201311151236")
  (comment "Computation of likelihood of brook trout presence.")
  (explanation "If-then-else clause.

If expected ANC calc is => 100, then set the value to 1, otherwise proceed to step 2.") 
 (= 
  (if 
   (>= 
    (VAR 
      (name "expected ANC calc")) 
    (const "100")) 
   (const "1") 
   (VAR 
     (name "brook trout step 1 calc")))))
(CVAR 
  (name "brook trout step 1 calc")
  (alias "BROOK_TRO2")
  (def 0 )
  (created "201005261313")
  (modified "201311151236")
  (comment "An empirical model that predicts likelihood of brook trout presence (low sensitivity) as a function of ANC for 0 to 100 range.") 
 (= 
  (+ 
   (const "0") 
   (x 
    (const "0.02") 
    (VAR 
      (name "expected ANC calc"))))))
(VAR 
  (name "btpP")
  (alias "BTP100P2")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "201005261311")
  (modified "201105240936")
  (comment "Parameter: likelihood of brook trout presence that is not acceptable. "))
(CVAR 
  (name "CL calc")
  (alias "CL_CALC")
  (def 0 )
  (created "201105231610")
  (modified "201311151236")
  (comment "Calculation of the sulfur critical load (meq/m^2/yr) to protect streams water to the specified ANC threshold.") 
 (= 
  (if 
   (< 
    (- 
     (+ 
      (VAR 
        (name "BCW calc")) 
      (VAR 
        (name "BCdep"))) 
     (+ 
      (VAR 
        (name "BCup")) 
      (x 
       (VAR 
         (name "ANCref")) 
       (VAR 
         (name "runoff"))))) 
    (const "0")) 
   (const "0.00001") 
   (- 
    (+ 
     (VAR 
       (name "BCW calc")) 
     (VAR 
       (name "BCdep"))) 
    (+ 
     (VAR 
       (name "BCup")) 
     (x 
      (VAR 
        (name "ANCref")) 
      (VAR 
        (name "runoff"))))))))
(CVAR 
  (name "EPT rich step1 calc")
  (alias "EPT_RICH_S")
  (def 0 )
  (created "201005241316")
  (modified "201311151236")
  (comment "Calculates proportion of EPT richness for ANC < 100.")
  (explanation "If-then-else clause.

If expected ANC calc is => 100, then set the value to 1, otherwise proceed to step 2.") 
 (=
   (comment "Calculates the proportion of EPT richness for ANC < 100 ueq/L.") 
  (if 
   (>= 
    (VAR 
      (name "expected ANC calc")) 
    (const "100")) 
   (const "1") 
   (VAR 
     (name "EPT rich step2 calc")))))
(CVAR 
  (name "EPT rich step2 calc")
  (alias "EPT_RICH_2")
  (def 0 )
  (created "201005261023")
  (modified "201311151236")
  (comment "Computes the proportion of insect EPT richness based on departure of expected richness at the estimated ANC from the expected richness at an ANC of 100.") 
 (=
   (comment "Ratio of expected EPT richness at a given site to the expected fish richness at ANC = 100 ueq/L.") 
  (/ 
   (VAR 
     (name "EPT rich step3 calc")) 
   (const "15.70"
     (comment "This is a constant, and equals the predicted number of insect spp at ANC 100.")))))
(CVAR 
  (name "EPT rich step3 calc")
  (alias "EPT_RICH_3")
  (def 0 )
  (created "201103282042")
  (modified "201311151336")
  (comment "An empirical model that predicts insect EPT richness as a function of ANC for the range 0 to 100.")
  (explanation "This function is based on data from 14 streams in Shenandoah National Park sampled on a quarterly basis through the SWAS program.

A quadratic equation of the form:

# of EPT Families = -0.00005 * ANC^2 + 0.0241 * ANC + 13.758

The minimum ANC values from 1988 - 2001 were used to develop this equation, along with macroinvertebrate data that were collected during the same time period.") 
 (=
   (comment "Equation for predicting aquatic insect (EPT) richness as a function of expected ANC. This equation was developed with data from Shenandoah NP (Cosby et al. 2006).") 
  (+ 
   (const "13.785") 
   (x 
    (const "0.0241") 
    (VAR 
      (name "expected ANC calc"))) 
   (x 
    (const "-0.00005") 
    (pow 
     (VAR 
       (name "expected ANC calc")) 
     (const "2"))))))
(VAR 
  (name "eptP")
  (alias "IR100P3")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "201005241406")
  (modified "201105240937")
  (comment "Parameter: proportion of insect EPT richness that is not acceptable. ")
  (explanation "This is the proportional reduction in insect spp given the calculated ANC (compared to ANC 100) that leads to rejection of proposition of no impact."))
(CVAR 
  (name "exceedance calc")
  (alias "EXCEEDANC2")
  (def 0 )
  (created "201005241312")
  (modified "201311151236")
  (comment "Computes exceedance of sulfur critical load under given ANC scenario.") 
 (= 
  (/
    (comment "Calculates the ratio of deposition to the calculated critical load.") 
   (x 
    (VAR 
      (name "Sratio")) 
    (VAR 
      (name "Sdep"))) 
   (VAR 
     (name "CL calc")))))
(VAR 
  (name "exceedP")
  (alias "EXCEED1002")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "201005241324")
  (modified "201105231626")
  (comment "Parameter: exceedance ratio of critical load for sulfur  that is not acceptable."))
(CVAR 
  (name "expected ANC calc")
  (alias "EXPECTED_A")
  (def 0 )
  (created "201005260937")
  (modified "201311151236")
  (comment "Computes weighted average of ANC values..")
  (explanation "This computation uses ANC1 and ANC2, along with their associated weights, to determine a final expected value of ANC for the catchment.

Method 1 is based on the statistical predictions using Random Forests. Method 2 is the measured ANC value at the nearest downstream site.

If the value of ANC2 is missing, then the calculation only returns the value of ANC1, which, in this case, will also have a weight of 1.") 
 (=
   (comment "The expected value of ANC for this location.") 
  (+
    (comment "Adds the two individual weighted estimates of ANC") 
   (x
     (comment "Multiplies the statisticaly predicted value of ANC by its associated weight") 
    (VAR 
      (name "ANCWT1")) 
    (VAR 
      (name "ANC1"))) 
   (if
     (comment "If-then-else clause") 
    (!= 
     (VAR 
       (name "ANC2")) 
     (const "Undetermined")) 
    (x
      (comment "Multiplies the downstream measured value of ANC by its associated weight.") 
     (VAR 
       (name "ANCWT2")) 
     (VAR 
       (name "ANC2"))) 
    (const "0")))))
(CVAR 
  (name "fish present step1 calc")
  (alias "FISH_PRESE")
  (def 0 )
  (created "201103282023")
  (modified "201311151336")
  (comment "First step in computation of likelihood of highly sensitive fish  presence.") 
 (= 
  (if 
   (>= 
    (VAR 
      (name "expected ANC calc")) 
    (const "100")) 
   (const "1") 
   (VAR 
     (name "fish present step2 calc")))))
(CVAR 
  (name "fish present step2 calc")
  (alias "FISH_PRES2")
  (def 0 )
  (created "201103282025")
  (modified "201311151336")
  (comment "An empirical model that predicts likelihood of highly sensitive fish presence as a function of ANC for 0 to 100 range.") 
 (= 
  (+ 
   (const "b0") 
   (x 
    (const "b1") 
    (VAR 
      (name "expected ANC calc"))))))
(CVAR 
  (name "fish rich step1 calc")
  (alias "FISH_RICH_")
  (def 0 )
  (created "201005261135")
  (modified "201311151236")
  (comment "Calculates proportion of fish richness for ANC < 100 ueq/L.")
  (explanation "If-then-else clause.

If expected ANC calc is => 100, then set the value to 1, otherwise proceed to step 2.") 
 (=
   (comment "Calculates proportion of fish richness for ANC < 100 ueq/L.") 
  (if 
   (>= 
    (VAR 
      (name "expected ANC calc")) 
    (const "100")) 
   (const "1") 
   (VAR 
     (name "fish rich step2 calc")
     (comment "Ratio of expected fish richness at a given site to the expected fish richness at ANC = 100 ueq/L.")))))
(CVAR 
  (name "fish rich step2 calc")
  (alias "FISH_RICH2")
  (def 0 )
  (created "201005261138")
  (modified "201311151236") 
 (=
   (comment "Ratio of expected fish richness at a given site to the expected fish richness at ANC = 100 ueq/L.") 
  (/ 
   (VAR 
     (name "fish rich step3 calc")) 
   (const "7.06"
     (comment "This is a constant, and equals the predicted number of fish spp at ANC 100.")))))
(CVAR 
  (name "fish rich step3 calc")
  (alias "FISH_RICH3")
  (def 0 )
  (created "201103281925")
  (modified "201311151336")
  (comment "An empirical model that predicts fish spp richness as a function of ANC from 0 to 100.")
  (explanation "This function is based on data from 13 streams in Shenandoah National Park sampled on a quarterly basis through the SWAS program.

A quadratic equation of the form:

# of Fish = -0.0001 * ANC^2 + 0.0598 * ANC + 2.0812

The minimum ANC values from 1988 - 2001 were used to develop this equation, along with fish species richness data that were collected during the same time period.") 
 (=
   (comment "Equation for predicting fish richness as a function of expected ANC. This equation was developed with data from Shenandoah NP (Cosby et al. 2006).") 
  (+ 
   (const "2.0812") 
   (x 
    (const "0.0598") 
    (VAR 
      (name "expected ANC calc"))) 
   (x 
    (const "-0.0001") 
    (pow 
     (VAR 
       (name "expected ANC calc")) 
     (const "2"))))))
(CVAR 
  (name "fish sensitive step1 calc")
  (alias "FISH_SENSI")
  (def 0 )
  (created "201103282011")
  (modified "201311151336")
  (comment "First step in computation of likelihood of fish 2 presence.")
  (explanation "If-then-else clause.

If expected ANC calc is => 100, then set the value to 1, otherwise proceed to step 2.") 
 (= 
  (if 
   (>= 
    (VAR 
      (name "expected ANC calc")) 
    (const "100")) 
   (const "0") 
   (VAR 
     (name "fish sensitive step2 calc")))))
(CVAR 
  (name "fish sensitive step2 calc")
  (alias "FISH_SENS2")
  (def 0 )
  (created "201103282014")
  (modified "201311151336")
  (comment "An empirical model that predicts likelihood of sensitive fish sp as a function of ANC for 0 to 100 range.") 
 (= 
  (+ 
   (const "0") 
   (x 
    (const "0.01") 
    (VAR 
      (name "expected ANC calc"))))))
(VAR 
  (name "fishp")
  (alias "FISH3100P2")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "201103281941")
  (modified "201311151359")
  (comment "Parameter: likelihood of fish presence that is not acceptable."))
(VAR 
  (name "fishSensP")
  (alias "FISH2100P2")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "201103281940")
  (modified "201105241340")
  (comment "Parameter: likelihood of sensitive fish presence that is not acceptable."))
(VAR 
  (name "frP")
  (alias "FR100P2")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "201005261105")
  (modified "201105240937")
  (comment "Parameter: proportion of fish spp richness that is not acceptable.")
  (explanation "This is the proportional reduction in fish spp given the calculated ANC (compared to ANC 100) that leads to rejection of proposition of no impact."))
(VAR 
  (name "runoff")
  (alias "RUNOFF2")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "201105231617")
  (modified "201108101408")
  (comment "Stream water runoff (m/yr)."))
(VAR 
  (name "Sdep")
  (alias "SDEP2")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "201005251308")
  (modified "201108101417")
  (comment "Total sulfur deposition (meq/m^2/year).")
  (explanation "Total (wet + dry) deposition of sulfate (as S) in units of meq/m^2/yr.

Wet deposition was obtained from NADP interpolations (Grimm and Lynch 1997), and were calculated as a 3-year average centered on year 2002 in units of meq/m^2/yr.

Dry deposition was obtained from CMAQ model output at 12km resolution for the year 2002 (EPA, Dennis, 2009), and represent units of meq/m^2/yr."))
(VAR 
  (name "Sratio")
  (alias "SRATIO2")
  (def 0 0 1 "" "" "")
  (created "201103302247")
  (modified "201105241348")
  (comment "Specifies a proportional reduction in S deposition for evaluating alternative deposition scenarios."))
(GOAL 
  (name "ANC impact")
  (alias "ANC_IMPACT")
  (created "201104281435")
  (modified "201311151237")
  (comment "Biological impacts of ANC are low.")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (AND 
   (GOAL 
     (name "insect richness")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "fish impact"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "aquatic impact")
  (alias "AQUATIC_IM")
  (created "201005241010")
  (modified "201311151237")
  (comment "Aquatic impact with respect to sulfur deposition and associated acidification effects is low.")
  (explanation "This topic assesses impact using a standard of ANC 100. Dark blue map features indicate areas that fully meet the standard (e.g., little or no impact based on ANC 50). Dark red map features indicate areas that definitely fail the standard. Intermediate shades indicate some degree of standard satisfaction. 

This topic represents the most pessimistic interpretation of impacts associated with sulfur deposition because reductions in  sulfur deposition rates are harder to achieve compared to the ANC 50 standard. In addition, some map areas may have naturally been low ANC to begin with, and perhaps could not attain ANC 100.")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (U 
   (GOAL 
     (name "exceedance")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "ANC impact"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "brook trout likelihood")
  (alias "BROOK_TRO3")
  (created "201005261308")
  (modified "201311151237")
  (comment "Level of sulfur deposition does not reduce likelihood of presence of brook trout.")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (CURVE 
    (name "brook trout likelihood step2 calc")
      (ARG "") 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "btpP")) 
    (const "-1")) 
   (PAIR  
    (const "1"
      (comment "Indicates 0 loss of likelihood of brook trout presence when calculated ANC => ANC 100.")) 
    (const "1"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "exceedance")
  (alias "EXCEEDANC3")
  (created "201005241042")
  (modified "201311151237")
  (comment "Exceedance ratio of sulfur critical load under a given ANC scenario is low.")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (CURVE 
    (name "exceedance calc")
      (ARG "") 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "exceedP")) 
    (const "-1")) 
   (PAIR  
    (const "1") 
    (const "1"
      (comment "If the ratio of deposition to critical load is 1, then there is no exceedance, and no impact.")))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "fish impact")
  (alias "FISH_IMPAC")
  (created "201005241011")
  (modified "201311151237")
  (comment "Level of sulfur deposition does not result in impacts to fish.")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (U 
   (GOAL 
     (name "fish presence")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "fish richness"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "fish likelihood")
  (alias "FISH_LIKEL")
  (created "201103281955")
  (modified "201311151337")
  (ignore)
  (comment "Level of sulfur deposition does not reduce likelihood of presence of fish.")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (CURVE 
    (name "fish present step1 calc")
      (ARG "") 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "fishp")) 
    (const "-1")) 
   (PAIR  
    (const "1"
      (comment "Indicates 0 loss of likelihood of brook trout presence when calculated ANC => ANC 100.")) 
    (const "1"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "fish presence")
  (alias "FISH_PRES3")
  (created "201005241220")
  (modified "201311151237")
  (comment "Level of sulfur deposition does not impact presence of fish spp.")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (U 
   (GOAL 
     (name "brook trout likelihood")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "sensitive fish likelihood")) 
   (GOAL 
     (name "fish likelihood"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "fish richness")
  (alias "FISH_RICHN")
  (created "201005241220")
  (modified "201311151237")
  (comment "Level of sulfur deposition does not impact fish spp richness. ")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (CURVE 
    (name "fish rich step1 calc")
      (ARG "") 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "frP")) 
    (const "-1")) 
   (PAIR  
    (const "1"
      (comment "Indicates no loss of fish spp richness when calculated ANC => ANC 100.")) 
    (const "1"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "insect richness")
  (alias "INSECT_RIC")
  (created "201005241043")
  (modified "201311151237")
  (comment "Level of sulfur deposition does not impact EPT.")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (CURVE 
    (name "EPT rich step1 calc")
      (ARG "") 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "eptP")) 
    (const "-1")) 
   (PAIR  
    (const "1"
      (comment "Indicates no loss of insect spp richness when calculated ANC => ANC 100.")) 
    (const "1"))))))
(GOAL 
  (name "sensitive fish likelihood")
  (alias "SENSITIVE_")
  (created "201103281955")
  (modified "201311151337")
  (comment "Level of sulfur deposition does not reduce likelihood of presence of sensitive fish spp.")
  (AFFIRMATION 
 (OR 
  (CURVE 
    (name "fish sensitive step1 calc")
      (ARG "") 
   (PAIR  
    (VAR 
      (name "fishSensP")) 
    (const "-1")) 
   (PAIR  
    (const "1"
      (comment "Indicates 0 loss of likelihood of brook trout presence when calculated ANC => ANC 100.")) 
    (const "1"))))))
(GROUP 
  (name "CL group")
  (def 1)
  (created "201005241001")
  (modified "201105231623")
  (GOAL "aquatic impact"))